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Will Taylor Swift win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?

44%

OPEN · Updated · Updated as of September 4, 2026

Our confidence in this call — not a price, and not odds.

Artist of the Year is a 6-person field; Madonna leads overall noms; ceremony still Sep 27.

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How this settles · YES if Taylor Swift wins Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV VMAs on Sep 27, 2026; NO if any other artist is named.

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Score over time

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September 4, 2026

2 published scores. This number is our Confidence Score, not a tape.